People who are worried by the prospect of President Donald Trump are often reminded of the checks and balances in the American system.

经常有人提醒那些对唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)即将就任总统感到担心的人：美国的体制具备制衡机制。

The US president is not a dictator.

美国总统不是独裁者。

He is constrained by the constitution, the courts and the Congress.

他受到宪法、法院和国会的制约。

But there is one area where checks and balances do not apply: nuclear weapons.

但制衡在一个领域并不适用：核武器。

Dick Cheney, the former US vice-president, explained the situation clearly in 2008,

2008年初，美国前副总统迪克.切尼(Dick Cheney)清楚地解释了这种情况。

when he told an interviewer: The president of the United States for 50 years is followed at all times, 24 hours a day, by a military aide carrying a football that contains the nuclear codes that he would use and be authorised to use in the event of a nuclear attack on the United States.

他在接受采访时说：50年来，每时每刻，每天24小时，美国总统后面都跟着一名军事助手，此人携带一枚足球，里面包含着总统在美国遭到核攻击时将使用、并被授权使用的核密码。

He could launch the kind of devastating attack the world’s never seen.

美国总统可以发动那种世人从未见过的毁灭性攻击。

He doesn’t have to check with anybody.

他不必与任何人商量。

He doesn’t have to call the Congress.

他不必知会国会。

He doesn’t have to check with the courts.

他不需要和法庭商量。

The president’s powers are even more extensive than those described by Mr Cheney.

总统的权力甚至比切尼描述的更广泛。

The US is not committed to a doctrine of no-first-use of nuclear weapons.

美国并未承诺不首先使用核武器。

So Mr Trump could order a nuclear strike against an adversary, even if the US itself had not been attacked.

因此，特朗普可以命令对敌方发起核攻击，即使美国本身没有受到攻击。

The idea that Mr Trump is too erratic to have his finger on the (mythical) nuclear button was brought up repeatedly during the presidential election campaign.

在总统竞选期间，特朗普太过反复无常、不能让他的手指触摸（神秘的）核按钮的观点被多次提起。

Hillary Clinton pointed out that only four minutes would elapse between the president giving the order for a nuclear attack and the US launching its missiles.

希拉里.克林顿(Hillary Clinton)指出，总统下达核攻击的命令仅仅4分钟后，美国的导弹就会发射出去。

Since president-elect Trump will be the commander-in-chief, no one further down the chain-of-command would have the legal authority to countermand his order.

由于当选总统特朗普将是美国军队总司令，在指挥链上，谁也无权撤销他的命令。

During the campaign, a group of US military officers who once controlled access to the launch of nuclear weapons published an open letter arguing that Mr Trump is unfit to bear the staggering pressures involved in having ultimate authority over the use of the world’s deadliest weapons.

在竞选期间，一群曾控制核武器发射程序的美国军官发表一封公开信，声称拥有使用世界上最致命武器的终极权力将带来惊人的压力，是特朗普不适合承受的。

One poll suggested that even 22 per cent of Mr Trump’s own supporters thought that he might launch a nuclear war.

一项民意调查显示，就连22%的特朗普支持者都认为，他或许会发动核战争。

In the absence of effective checks and balances on the use of nuclear weapons by Mr Trump, three issues are crucial: the president-elect’s temperament, his advisers and the kind of situations that are likely to confront him.

在特朗普使用核武器方面缺乏有效制衡的情况下，三个问题变得至关重要：当选总统的性情、他的顾问和他可能面对的情况。

Mr Trump’s personality is not reassuring.

特朗普的性情并不令人放心。

As the officers’ open letter put it, he is easily baited and quick to lash out.

正如前述军官们的公开信所说，他是容易上钩，动辄大发雷霆。

In a confrontation, his instinct is to escalate, not to seek a compromise.

在对抗中，他的本能是升级，而不是寻求妥协。

In the wake of the death of Fidel Castro, it is worth recalling the Cuban missile crisis of 1962.

在菲德尔.卡斯特罗(Fidel Castro)去世后，1962年古巴导弹危机是值得回忆的。

Faced with the threat of a nuclear exchange with the Soviet Union, President John F Kennedy resisted the advice of his hawkish military advisers to escalate the conflict and invade Cuba.

面对与苏联打一场核战争的威胁，美国总统约翰.肯尼迪(John F Kennedy)抵制住了鹰派军事顾问有关升级冲突、入侵古巴的建议。

Would a President Trump have the same instincts?

特朗普会有同样的本能吗？

In a foreign policy crisis, the president’s most important counsellor is his national security adviser, whose office is in the White House.

在外交政策危机中，总统最重要的顾问是他的国家安全顾问，后者的办公室设在白宫内。

The man that Mr Trump has appointed to head the National Security Council, General Michael Flynn, does not have a reputation as a calm leader.

被特朗普任命为国家安全委员会(NSC)负责人的迈克尔.弗林(Michael Flynn)，并不拥有一位沉着领导者的声誉。

Leaked emails from Colin Powell suggest that Gen Flynn was sacked as the head of the Defence Intelligence Agency in 2014 because he was abusive with staff, didn’t listen, worked against policy.

泄密的科林.鲍威尔(Colin Powell)电子邮件似乎表明，弗林将军在2014年被解除了国防情报局(DIA)局长职位，因为他辱骂员工，听不进意见，违反政策。

Mr Powell, who served as President George W Bush’s secretary of state, dismissed Gen Flynn as right-wing, nutty.

曾在乔治•W•布什(George W Bush)总统手下担任国务卿的鲍威尔，对弗林不屑一顾，认为他持右翼立场、很愚蠢。

Another very senior figure in the Bush administration privately agrees, describing Gen Flynn as crazy and predicting that he will not last more than a year.

布什政府的另一位非常资深的官员私下表示同意，描述弗林是个疯狂的人，并预测他在国家安全顾问的位置上撑不了一年。

Those who want a sense of Gen Flynn’s temperament might care to watch the video of his speech to the Republican National Convention in which he joined in chants of lock her up aimed at Mrs Clinton.

那些想要了解弗林性情的人，不妨看看他在共和党全国委员会(RNC)发表演讲的视频——他跟观众一起高呼把她（指希拉里）关起来。

One of the most urgent problems that will confront Mr Trump is the North Korean nuclear programme.

朝鲜核计划是特朗普面临的最紧迫问题之一。

It is one of the three main subjects the president-elect discussed with President Obama at their first meeting.

这是他作为当选总统首次与奥巴马(Obama)总统会面时讨论的三个主要议题之一。

North Korea is thought to be about two years away from developing a nuclear-tipped missile, capable of hitting the west coast of the US.

据信，朝鲜在大约两年内就能开发出携带核弹头的远程导弹，射程达到美国西海岸。

It is often said that no American president could tolerate that situation.

人们经常说，任何一位美国总统都不能容忍这种情况发生。

But President Barack Obama has, to date, rejected military options for dealing with North Korea because of the risks that an American attack would spark devastating retaliation against South Korea, or even the use of North Korea’s remaining nuclear weapons.

但迄今为止，奥巴马总统拒绝对朝鲜采取军事行动，因为美国的攻击将让韩国遭到毁灭性报复，甚至可能促使朝鲜使用剩下的核武器。

Will president-elect Trump be as restrained?

当选总统特朗普也会同样克制吗？

Another potential crisis is brewing in eastern Europe.

东欧正在酝酿着另一场潜在的危机。

Russia has been increasingly open in rehearsing for the use of battlefield nuclear weapons in a conflict with Nato.

对于演练在与北约(Nato)的冲突中使用战场核武器，俄罗斯越来越公开。

As one Russian analyst puts it: President Putin has put the nuclear gun on the table.

正如一位俄罗斯分析人士所说：普京总统已把核武器摆到桌上。

Might President Trump be tempted to respond in kind?

特朗普总统可能做出类似回应吗？

In the coming weeks, president-elect Trump will be introduced to America’s nuclear secrets contained in the football (in reality, a briefcase).

在接下来的几个星期，足球（实际上是一个公文包）中包含的美国核秘密将被介绍给当选总统特朗普。

These including the presidential decision handbook which contains the menu of targets that President Trump could choose to attack, along with estimated death tolls, which run into millions and, in some cases, more than 100m.

其中包括总统决策手册，内容包含特朗普总统可以选择攻击的目标菜单，以及估计死亡人数——达到数百万，在某些情况下会超过1亿。

This is said to be a sobering experience for all new presidents.

据称，这是一次让所有新总统清醒过来的体验。

Let us hope it has the same effect on President Trump.

让我们希望这对特朗普总统也会产生同样效果吧。