A German study suggests that people who were too optimistic about their future actually faced greater risk of disability or death within 10 years than those pessimists who expected their future to be worse.
The paper, published this March in Psychology and Aging, examined health and welfare surveys from roughly 40,000 Germans between ages 18 and 96.The surveys were conducted every year from 1993 to 2003.
Survey respondents (受访者) were asked to estimate t heir present and future life satisfaction on a scale of 0 to 10, among other questions.
The researchers found that young adults (age 18 to 39) routinely overestimated their future life satisfaction, while middle­aged adults (age 40 to 64) more accurately predicted how they would feel in the future.Adults of 65 and older, however, were far more likely to underestimate their future life satisfaction.Not only did they feel more satisfied than they thought they would, the older pessimists seemed to suffer a lower ratio (比率) of disability and death for the study period.
“We observed that being too optimistic in predicting a better future than actually observed was associated with a greater risk of disability and a greater risk of death within the following decade，” wrote Frieder R．Lang, a professor at the University of Erlangen­Nuremberg.
Lang and his colleagues believed that people who were pessimistic about their future may be more careful about their actions than people who expected a rosy future.
“Seeing a dark future may encourage positive evaluations of the actual self and may contribute to taking improved precautions(预防措施)，”the authors wrote.
Surprisingly, compared with those in poor health or who had low incomes, respondents who enjoyed good health or income were associated with expecting a greater decline.Also, the researchers said that higher income was related to a greater risk of disability.
The authors of the study noted that there were limitations to their conclusions.Illness, medical treatment and personal loss could also have driven health outcomes.
However, the researchers said a pattern was clear.“We found that from early to late adulthood, individuals adapt their expectations of future life satisfaction from optimistic, to accurate, to pessimistic，” the authors concluded.
5．According to the study, who made the most accurate prediction of their future life satisfaction?
A．Optimistic adults.   B．Middle­aged adults.
C．Adults in poor health.   D．Adults of lower income.
解析　细节理解题。由文章第四段第一句话“The researchers found that young adults (age 18 to 39) routinely overestimated their future life satisfaction, while middle­aged adults (age 40 to 64) more accurately predicted how they would feel in the future.”可知中年人可以更加精确地预测他们的未来。故选B项。
答案　B
6．Pessimism may be positive in some way because it causes people________.
A．to fully enjoy their present life
B．to estimate their contribution accurately
C．to take measures against potential risks
D．to value health more highly than wealth
解析　细节理解题。由第六、七段中的关键信息“...people who were pessimistic  about their future may be more careful about their actions...”及“...contribute to taking improved precautions(预防措施)．..”可知对未来持 悲观态度的人会对他们的行动更加小心并且采取一些预防措施，故选C项。
答案　C
7．How do people of higher income see their future?
A．They will earn less money.
B．They will become pessimistic.
C．They will suffer mental illness.
D．They will have less time to enjoy life.
解析　细节理解题。由第八段第一句话“Surprisingly, compared with those in poor health or who had low incomes, respondents who enjoyed good health or income were associated with expecting a greater decline.”可知工资高的人会预料他们未来工资的下降，故选A项。
答案　A
8．What is the clear conclusion of the study?
A．Pessimism guarantees chances of survival.
B．Good financial condition leads to good health.
C．Medical treatme nt determines health outcomes.
D．Expectations of future life satisfaction decline with age.
解析　推理判断题。由最后一段的最后一句话“‘We found that from early to late adulthood, individuals adapt their expectations of future life satisfaction from optimistic, to accurate, to pessimistic，’the authors concluded.”可知对未来生活满意度的预测随年龄的增长而下降。
答案　D