如今，由于新兴市场国家出口总额的增长率低于发达国家进口总额的增长率，新兴经济体正失去在发达国家的市场份额。卢宾说，无论是大宗商品出口国（出口总额同比出现负增长），还是制造业出口国，情况都是如此。只有中国、墨西哥等少数国家例外。

So the developed world is not the catalyst for growth that it was for developing nations. Meanwhile, China, whose demand fuelled a rise in income for commodity producers such as Australia and Indonesia and manufacturers outside the mainland that were vital to its own supply chains, is both reducing its demand for goods from beyond its borders and taking market share from others. “China seems to be outcompeting emerging markets in an environment where the overall weakness of world trade growth leaves developing countries badly exposed,” Mr Lubin concludes.

因此，发达世界如今不是推动发展中国家增长的催化剂，尽管它过去是。与此同时，中国正一方面减少对海外商品的需求，一方面从别国手中夺取市场份额。在以前，中国的需求曾推动了澳大利亚、印尼等大宗商品生产国以及中国内地以外对其供应链至关重要的制造国的收入增长。卢宾总结说：“在世界贸易增长整体疲软使发展中国家承受很大风险之际，中国似乎在与新兴市场竞争中占优。”

The most optimistic spin to put on all this is that China’s shift to becoming a more active exporter of capital and a vast offshore investor will inspire growth in a different paradigm. Both at the Boao Forum in March and in Shanghai at last weekend’s Lujiazui Forum, government officials such as Li Keping of CIC and a big shareholder in the new Silk Road Fund, testified to China’s determination to “play a bigger role in boosting the world economy” through the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank. “We have the highest savings rate in the world and we should leverage this advantage and export capital,” added Jin Qi, the chairwoman of that fund. Every day it seems a new fund is launched, such as one for central Europe from China Exim Bank.

对这一切所能做的最乐观的解读是：中国朝着成为更加活跃的资本输出国和对外投资大国的方向转变，将以一种不同的范式推动世界经济增长。在3月举行的博鳌论坛，以及上周末上海陆家嘴论坛上，包括中投公司(CIC)总经理李克平在内，一些政府官员表明了中国要通过亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)和新开发银行(New Development Bank)，“在提振世界经济方面发挥更大作用”的决心。中投公司是丝路基金(Silk Road Fund)的大股东。丝路基金董事长金琦补充说：“我们有世界最高的储蓄率，我们应该利用这一优势输出资本。”似乎每天都有一只新的基金成立，比如中国进出口银行(China Exim Bank)专注欧洲中部地区的基金。

The world can use China’s capital — and, by the way, more of it will be in the Chinese currency. But whether even $4tn in mainland reserves is enough to lift the world out of its doldrums is uncertain.

世界可以利用中国的资本——而且，其中将会有更多的人民币资本。但不确定的是，中国内地4万亿美元的外汇储备是否足以让世界走出经济不景气。