这一模式不可持续。所以克鲁格教授非常合情合理地提出了两条建议：波多黎各必须推行结构性改革，比如削减福利支出和劳动力成本；同时也需要重组债务，使之回到更可持续的水平上。

But, as in Greece, it is unclear whether Puerto Rico’s government has the stomach for austerity. Worse still, the island’s debt structure is staggeringly complex, since the bonds have been issued by numerous different entities, with varying types of guarantees. These creditors show no desire to co-ordinate; instead, they are threatening to sue each other and the island. Thus the nightmare scenario that now haunts Puerto Rico is not so much that of Greece but Argentina: years of legal limbo, shut out of the capital markets.

但是，正如在希腊一样，波多黎各政府是否有魄力实行紧缩政策尚不可知。更糟糕的是，该岛的债务结构极其复杂，因为债券是由数不清的不同实体发行的，担保的类型也各不相同。这些债权人没有表现出丝毫相互协调的意愿；相反，他们威胁着要相互起诉，并起诉波多黎各政府。这样一来，目前困扰着波多黎各的噩梦般的场景不是希腊式，而是阿根廷式的：多年的法律空白；被资本市场关在门外。

Is there a solution? In theory, as Lawrence Summers, a former Treasury secretary says, one resolution would be for the International Monetary Fund to intervene. But it will not, since Puerto Rico is not a sovereign state. Washington could play an IMF-style role if it chose, since Puerto Rico, as a territory, is part of the federal system. But the Obama administration has made it clear it does not wish to intervene.

是否有解决办法？理论上，正如美国前财长劳伦斯•萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)所说的，一个解决方案是由国际货币基金组织(IMF)介入。但IMF不会介入，因为波多黎各并非主权国家。华盛顿方面如果愿意的话，可以扮演类似IMF的角色。因为波多黎各作为一块领地，是美国联邦系统的一部分。但奥巴马政府已明确表示无意介入。

That suggests that the least bad remaining option is to find a third party legal referee to oversee an economic plan that forces the creditors into a compromise. America does have one existing model for this: a Chapter 9 framework that offers bankruptcy protection for public entities.

这表明，剩下的不那么糟糕的选择唯有找到一个第三方法律仲裁人来执行一项强令债权人达成妥协的经济计划。美国在这方面的确有一个现成的模式：为公共实体提供破产保护的美国《破产法》第9章。

This was used to restructure Detroit’s $18bn debt pile. That worked because it focused on restoring city services, says Kenneth Buckfire, a restructuring expert. Creditor haircuts were the result of this analysis; they were not imposed to support a failed system.

该章已用于重组底特律的180亿美元债务。重组专家肯尼思•巴克菲尔(Kenneth Buckfire)说，这么做管用，是因为它聚焦于恢复城市服务。这一分析的结果是债权人接受债务减记；他们没有被强制支持一个失败的体系。

But since Puerto Rico is a territory, not a city, it is not allowed to use Chapter 9 without a change in US law. This seems unlikely to occur soon, since parts of the Republican party fear that letting Puerto Rico use Chapter 9 would prompt other American entities, such as Illinois, to default too.

但是，既然波多黎各是领地而不是城市，如果不修订美国法律，《破产法》第9章对波多黎各是不适用的。看来美国不太可能很快修订相关法律，因为部分共和党人担心，允许波多黎各适用《破产法》第9章将促使伊利诺伊州等其他美国实体也会违约。

The result, then, is stalemate. Thankfully, the situation is not (yet) bad enough to spark a full-blown crisis; but piles of “unpayable” debt have a nasty way of sapping confidence and growth. Or to put it another way, the next time that US officials lecture eurozone leaders on their failure to sort out Greece, they should glance at their own backyard first; or better still, take resolute action — say, by reforming that Chapter 9 code.

那么，结果就是僵局。幸运的是，局势（还）没有糟糕到引发全面危机的地步；但大量“无法偿还”的债务会严重地打击信心、削弱增长。或换言之，下一次美国官员们数落欧元区领导人无力解决希腊危机时，他们应该首先看一下自己的后院；更好的结果是他们采取果断的措施，比如说修改《破产法》第9章。