It was as if the potash industry breathed a collective sigh of relief.

整个钾肥行业好像松了一口气。

BPC, the trading arm of Belaruskali, announced earlier this month its long-awaited annual potash contract with a consortium of Chinese buyers.

Belaruskali旗下贸易机构白俄罗斯钾肥公司(BPC)本月早些时候宣布，与中国买家组成的一个财团签订了久盼的年度钾肥合约。

“Better late than never,” was the verdict of analysts at Scotiabank.

丰业银行(Scotiabank)分析师的结论是“迟来总比没有强。”

After BPC’s $219-a-tonne agreement — a 30 per cent fall from 2015 — Israel Chemicals (ICL) on Tuesday said it had signed a contract with its Chinese customers, and other potash producers in Russia and North America are understood to be negotiating contracts.

在BPC签订每吨219美元的合约（较2015年价格下跌30%）之后，以色列化工(Israel Chemical)周二表示，已与中国客户签订合约，据悉其他俄罗斯和北美钾肥生产商也在商谈合约。

The annual agreement with China, the world’s biggest potash user, provides a global benchmark. Until the accord, industry executives and analysts had blamed this year’s sluggish shipments on the lack of a contract.

与全球最大钾肥消费国中国签订的年度合约提供了一个全球基准。在合约签订之前，行业高管和分析人士都将今年销售乏力归咎于合约缺席。

Potash, which regulates plants’ water content and improves root strength, is mined from deposits in countries including Canada, Russia and Belarus. It is one of the key crop nutrients.

钾盐可以调节植物的水含量并促使根部发达，是重要的农作物营养素之一，主要开采自加拿大、俄罗斯和白俄罗斯等国的钾矿。

Companies such as Canada’s PotashCorp, Russia’s Uralkali as well as Belaruskali are among the world’s leading suppliers.

加拿大钾肥(PotashCorp)、俄罗斯乌拉尔钾肥(Uralkali)以及Belaruskali等公司是全球领先供应商。

BHP Billiton, the world’s largest miner by market value, is also developing a potash mine in Canada.

全球市值最高矿商必和必拓(BHP Billiton)也在加拿大开发钾矿。

Thanks to the settlement, shares in the leading potash producers bounced. Since the start of the month PotashCorp, Mosaic and K+S are up 6 per cent, 9 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively.

合约的签订促使这些领先钾肥生产商的股价回升。自本月初以来，加拿大钾肥、美盛(Mosaic)和K+S的股价分别上涨6%、9%和4%。

But the outlook for the potash market remains uncertain. Here are five factors that will shape the outlook:

但钾肥市场的前景仍不确定。下面是将影响钾肥市场前景的5个因素。

1. Increasing competition

1.竞争加剧

In recent years the leading producers have all blamed rising competition for sluggish prices. In the past, the large suppliers have not pursued market share by offering lower prices. But a fight to sell increased volumes has broken out amid an oversupply of potash as well as tumbling crop prices.

最近几年，领先钾肥生产商都将价格低迷归咎于竞争加剧。过去，大型供应商不通过降价取得市场份额。但随着钾肥供应过剩以及农作物价格下跌，各生产商竞相扩大销量。

Macquarie points to Chinese customs data that show Uralkali has gained share this year at the expense of ICL and Canpotex, the legal North American export cartel comprising of PotashCorp, Mosaic and Agrium. The bank expects the fight for market share to continue. “We see no alternative but for a growing market share battle between major potash producers,” it says.

麦格理(Macquarie)指出，中国海关数据显示，乌拉尔钾肥今年市场份额扩大，抢走了以色列化工和北美合法出口卡特尔Canpotex的份额。该卡特尔由加拿大钾肥、美盛以及Agrium组成。麦格理预测，市场份额争夺将继续。该银行表示：“除了主要钾肥生产商之间日益加剧的市场份额之战，我们看不到其他选择。”

2. Shipments in 2016 and 2017

2.2016年和2017年装运量

A late Chinese contract settlement historically has led to lower international shipments for the year, but the pent-up demand usually means higher shipments the following year.

这份相比过去姗姗来迟的中国合约，导致今年国际装运量下滑，但压抑的需求通常意味着第二年的装运量会增加。

“We expect the situation will be no different with a delayed contract impacting shipments in the first half of 2016, setting up the potential for a strong demand recovery in the coming year,” says PotashCorp.

加拿大钾肥表示：“我们预测不会有什么不同，尽管迟来的合约影响了2016年上半年的装运量，但明年可能出现强劲的需求复苏。”

3. Bottoming demand

3.需求触底

Industry executives and analysts have noted a recovery in key potash markets including Brazil and the US.

行业高管和分析师们指出，包括巴西和美国在内的关键钾肥市场出现复苏。

Much will depend on currency movements. Uralkali says demand in the Brazilian and Indian markets “is getting better,” while analysts also expect US farmers to increase fertiliser applications.

汇率走势将产生很大影响。乌拉尔钾肥表示，巴西和印度市场的需求“正在好转”，同时分析师也预计美国农民将会增加化肥施用。

Crop prices also have a big effect. Grain and oilseed prices have fallen back after a rally earlier this year, but the fertiliser price declines relative to crop prices provides farmers with an incentive to apply more crop nutrients, according to PotashCorp analysis. “We believe this increased affordability will support strong fertiliser demand and provide the opportunity for a fertiliser price recovery,” the company argues.

作物价格也有很大影响。加拿大钾肥的分析显示，谷物和油籽价格在今年早些时候上涨之后回落，但化肥价格相对作物价格下降让农民有动力为庄稼施用更多养分。该公司称：“我们相信，价格承受力的提高将支撑化肥的强劲需求，并为化肥价格复苏提供机遇。”

4. Mixed supply outlook

4.好坏参半的供应前景

Questions about potash supply also remain. “Any price increase depends on further discipline by the producers,” says Oliver Hatfield at Integer.

钾肥供应问题犹存。咨询机构Integer的奥利弗•哈特菲尔德(Oliver Hatfield)表示：“价格上涨取决于生产商的进一步自律。”

This seems to be happening. Mosaic, for example, recently announced it would idle a mine with capacity of about 2.6m tonnes until the end of the year. Nearly 7m tonnes of production capacity could be closed between 2016 and 2020, says PotashCorp.

生产商似乎正在自律。例如，美盛最近宣布，将让一座大约260万吨产能的矿闲置至今年年底。加拿大钾肥公司表示，可能在2016年到2020年间关闭近700万吨的产能。

In the medium term, however, the market is braced for new production. K+S’s Legacy mine in Canada is due to be commissioned this year, reaching 2m tonne capacity in 2017.

然而，中期来说，钾肥市场将会迎来新的产能。K+S在加拿大的Legacy矿计划于今年投产，将在2017年达到200万吨的产能。

EuroChem is planning two projects in Russia with targeted capacity of more than 8m tonnes, with production aimed at 2017-18.

EuroChem正在规划俄罗斯的两个项目，目标产能逾800万吨，计划在2017-2018年间投产。

5. Possible Belaruskali and Uralkali reunion

5.Belaruskali和乌拉尔钾肥可能重新结盟

A leading factor behind tougher competition in the potash sector has been the break-up in 2013 of the original BPC, formed between Uralkali and Belaruskali. Uralkali quit the trading arm after it accused Belaruskali of going behind its back in trading with China.

钾肥市场竞争加剧的一个主要因素是乌拉尔钾肥和Belaruskali最初创建的BPC联盟在2013年瓦解。乌拉尔钾肥在指责Belaruskali私下与中国贸易之后退出了BPC。

In the past year, Uralkali’s shareholders have reportedly approached Belaruskali about reviving their export operations. If that happens, it could be bullish for potash prices. But Ben Isaacson at Scotiabank says there is little upside for Belaruskali, which has now formed relationships in key potash markets.

在过去一年里，据报道称乌拉尔钾肥的股东就恢复出口联盟与Belaruskali进行了接洽。如果实现，可能有助于提升钾肥价格。但丰业银行的本•伊萨克森(Ben Isaacson)表示，这对Belaruskali没什么好处，因为后者现在已经与关键钾肥市场建立了联系。