German magazine Der Spiegel sparked international controversy in February when it published an editorial under the headline “Donald Trump is the world’s most dangerous man”.

今年2月，德国杂志《明镜周刊》(Der Spiegel)发表了一篇题为《唐纳德•特朗普是世界上最危险的人》(Donald Trump is the world’s most dangerous man)的社论，在国际上引发争议。

Within three months of the publication of the article, Mr Trump has defied critics and pundits to become the presumptive Republican candidate in the US presidential election this November.

在文章发表后的3个月内，虽然遭受批评者和评论人士的抨击，但特朗普仍然成为了今年11月美国总统大选的共和党假定被提名人（编者注：据美国媒体5月26日报道，特朗普已获得被党内提名所需的选举人票）。

Most observers — including the global asset management industry — doubted the US billionaire would ever get this far.

大多数观察人士（包括全球资产管理行业）都没有想到这位美国亿万富翁能够走到这一步。

But his unexpected ascent in America’s political hierarchy has raised some difficult questions for many of the world’s largest investors about just how dangerous, or beneficial, he could be for their portfolios.

但是对许多全球最大的投资者而言，特朗普在美国政治体系中的意外崛起，引发了难以解答的问题——他对于他们的投资组合有多么危险，或者有多大益处。

Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund manager, believes Mr Trump is “all but certain” to receive the Republican nomination at the party’s convention in July, now that his two closest rivals, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, have dropped out of the race.

全球最大的债券基金管理公司——太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)认为，既然特朗普的两个最大的竞争对手特德•克鲁斯(Ted Cruz)和约翰•卡西奇(John Kasich)全都退选，那么他“几乎肯定会”在今年7月的共和党全国大会上获得共和党总统候选人提名。

But Libby Cantrill, executive vice-president at the Californian asset manager, believes Mr Trump’s triumph provides few clues to investors about how they should react.

但这家加州资产管理公司的执行副总裁莉比•坎特里尔(Libby Cantrill)表示，特朗普的胜利为投资者的投资策略提供不了什么线索。

“A Trump candidacy does not make it easier for investors to anticipate the possible economic and market implications of a Trump presidency if he were to win the US general election in November,” she says.

她说：“特朗普获得候选人提名并不会让投资者更容易预测，假如特朗普在今年11月赢得大选，可能带来什么经济和市场影响。”

James Clunie, manager of the absolute return fund at Jupiter, the UK-listed asset manager, believes international investors have been woefully slow to consider the ramifications of a Trump victory in November.

英国上市资产管理公司Jupiter的绝对回报基金的经理詹姆斯•克卢尼(James Clunie)认为，国际投资者在考虑特朗普11月赢得大选的影响方面迟缓得可悲。

“A lot of people in the investment community think it is so inconceivable he could become president that [they] are not thinking about hedges. That is, collectively, a big mistake.

“许多投资人士认为他当选总统是不可想象的，因此没有考虑对冲。把他们合在一起来看，这是一个严重的错误。”

“[The US election] should be the talk of the town, but it’s not. Trump is a good wake-up call to stop thinking everything is fine [in the US], as we have done for the past six years. It is a good time to think about fragility in the States.”

“（美国大选）本应是热议的话题，但它现在不是。特朗普是一记很好的警钟，提醒人们不要以为（美国）还像我们过去6年来认为的那样一切都好。现在是时候考虑美国的脆弱了。”

To prepare for the possibility of Mr Trump winning in November, some asset managers are beginning to take a careful look at the potential impact of the controversial policies the US businessman has endorsed so far.

为了应对特朗普今年11月赢得大选的可能性，一些资产管理公司开始认真考虑这位美国商人迄今支持的有争议政策的潜在影响。

These include pursuing a protectionist economic agenda by scrapping the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, and imposing high tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports.

这些政策包括丢弃拟议的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP)来实施保护主义经济议程，并对来自中国和墨西哥的进口产品征收高关税。

Mr Trump has also indicated he wants to cut the top rate of corporate income tax from 39 per cent to 15 per cent, but will clamp down on the use of “inversion” deals that allow companies to shift their tax bases overseas.

特朗普还暗示称，他希望将企业所得税最高税率从39%降至15%，但会打击让公司将税基转到海外的“税收倒置”协议。

Both Mr Trump and Hillary Clinton, the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination, have pledged to plough money into infrastructure, and to ditch a tax break worth billions of dollars to private equity and hedge fund managers.