瑞士私人银行UBP的股票主管马丁•莫勒(Martin Moeller)表示：“特朗普在选举中致力于发布有趣而荒诞的声明，（但是）一旦当选，吸引媒体关注的必要性就会下降，他会更加致力于找到与其他政客的共识来做成事情。”

“I think President Trump would be more realistic and reasonable than Campaigner Trump.”

“我认为‘总统特朗普’将比‘竞选人特朗普’更加现实和理性。”

Investors are also torn over whether a Trump presidency is so unlikely that it is not worth preparing for or whether it is a viable possibility that warrants careful positioning.

投资者也产生了分歧，一种观点认为特朗普非常不可能当选总统，因此没有必要做准备，另一种观点是特朗普当选总统具有现实可能性，因此有必要认真建立相应头寸。

Political surprises have abounded over the past two years, from the rise of the far-left Syriza party in Greece last year, to the UK Conservative party’s outright win in the 2015 general election. These unexpected developments have delivered painful lessons for investors and politicians alike.

过去两年里发生了太多的政治意外事件，从去年希腊激进左翼联盟(Syriza)的崛起，到英国保守党在2015年大选中大获全胜。这些意外发展给投资者和政客带来了惨痛的教训。

Specifically in terms of the US election, Mr Trump is seen as a unique nominee who has so far broken all conventional rules about what makes a successful presidential candidate. This makes him extremely unpredictable.

具体就美国选举而言，特朗普被视为一名独特的被提名人，迄今打破了关于成功的总统候选人的所有传统规则。这让他完全不可预知。

Sushil Wadhwani, investment manager at GAM, the Swiss fund house, who is a former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, says: “Much of the historical work on elections and markets suggests that it is the party that matters.

瑞士基金公司GAM的投资经理苏希尔•瓦德瓦尼(Sushil Wadhwani)表示：“大量关于选举和市场的历史研究表明，最重要的是党派。”瓦德瓦尼曾经担任英国央行(BOE)货币政策委员会委员。

“This time is different. Trump is an unusual candidate as he is not a typical Republican. We might need to rewrite the rules in this case.”

“这次有所不同。特朗普是一个与众不同的候选人，他不是典型的共和党人。我们这一回可能需要改写规则。”

The consensus is that investors should not rule out the possibility of a Trump presidency in 2017.

共识意见是，投资者不应排除特朗普在2017年就任美国总统的可能性。

Over the past two weeks, his odds of winning the election have risen from 21 per cent to 28 per cent, according to Betfair, the gambling website. Mrs Clinton’s odds have fallen over the same period, from 75 per cent to 69 per cent.

博彩网站必发(Betfair)的数据显示，在5月中的两周，他赢得大选的几率从21%升至28%。同期希拉里的胜选几率从75%降至69%。

Steve Dexter, chief investment officer at Copper Rock Capital, a Boston-based asset manager, says: “Trump has repeatedly surprised. The talking heads like to discount his base as just a bunch of disaffected blue-collar rednecks, but in reality the post-election polls have shown that he has drawn significant support from middle- to upper-income college-educated segments of society.

波士顿资产管理公司Copper Rock Capital的首席投资官史蒂夫•德克斯特(Steve Dexter)表示：“特朗普屡次出人意料。评论人士喜欢将他的选民基础贬损为只是一群心怀不满的蓝领工人，但实际上选举后的民调显示，他获得了受过大学教育的中高收入阶层的大力支持。”

“He also draws from both the Republican base and the Democrat. This means he could surprise and I would suggest most [investors] still view him as a long-shot loose cannon.”

“他还获得了共和党基层选民和民主党的支持，这意味着他可能让人大吃一惊，我建议大多数（投资者）还是将他视为一个不容小视的危险人物为好。”