特朗普和民主党总统候选人提名领跑者希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)都承诺向基础设施投入大量资金，并取消给私人股本和对冲基金公司的价值数十亿美元的税收优惠。

Some investors highlight healthcare as a sector that could suffer under Mr Trump, who has repeatedly promised to abolish Obamacare, the law that expanded access to care and the biggest medical programme for the poor in the US.

一些投资者强调，如果特朗普当选总统，医疗行业可能遭受影响，因为他多次承诺要废除“奥巴马医改”(Obamacare)。奥巴马医改扩大了医疗服务和美国最大医保计划对穷人的覆盖范围。

Other fund managers suggest shorting container shipping companies to prepare for a Trump presidency, as a break-up of trade agreements and the imposition of trade barriers could hurt trade, or betting against listed hedge funds and private equity firms in anticipation of more stringent taxation.

其他基金公司提议做空集装箱航运公司以应对特朗普当选总统的可能性，因为废除贸易协定和施加贸易壁垒可能伤害贸易；或者做空上市的对冲基金和私人股本公司，因为预计特朗普上台将会推出更为严厉的税法。

Mr Clunie recalls the run-up to the 2014 Scottish referendum on independence from the rest of the UK, when few financiers were prepared for the possibility of Scotland opting for independence.

克卢尼回忆起2014年苏格兰就是否脱离英国举行公投前的那段时期，当时很少有金融人士为苏格兰可能选择独立做准备。

He took out a short position against Caixabank, the Spanish lender, before the referendum, based on the theory that if Scotland voted to leave the UK, it would increase the likelihood of Catalonia, a wealthy Spanish region with its own language and parliament, becoming independent.

他在公投前建立了对西班牙Caixabank银行的空头仓位，理由是如果苏格兰选择脱离英国，就会增加加泰罗尼亚独立的可能性。加泰罗尼亚是西班牙的一个拥有自己语言和议会的富裕地区。

Although Scotland chose to remain in the UK, the referendum was much closer than pollsters originally anticipated. Mr Clunie believes the US election could yield similar surprises.

尽管最后苏格兰选择留在英国，但公投结果显示支持脱英和支持留英阵营的比例要比民意调查机构最初预计的接近得多。克卢尼相信，美国大选可能同样出人意料。

He has not found another “non-obvious” hedge to prepare his portfolio for a Trump presidency. But he points out other commentators have made the tongue-in-cheek suggestion of buying Canadian residential property on the basis that Americans could “flee” north of the border if Mr Trump wins.

他还没有找到另一种“非明显”对冲策略，使他的投资组合对特朗普当选总统做好准备，但他指出，其他评论人士半开玩笑地提议，鉴于如果特朗普赢得大选，美国人可能“逃往”边境北部，人们应该购买加拿大的房地产。

Other investors point to the many sectors that could flourish under Mr Trump’s leadership, including banking and defence.

还有投资者指出有许多行业可能因特朗普当选总统而繁荣发展，包括银行业和防务业。

Michael Gregory, chief investment officer at Highland Alternative Investors, the Dallas-based asset manager, says: “Less aggressive banking regulation would be a lift for the big banks. Trump sees banks as having a material role in economic growth and lending, and has called for the repeal of Dodd-Frank [the financial regulation legislation].

达拉斯资产管理公司Highland Alternative Investors的首席投资官迈克尔•格雷戈里(Michael Gregory)表示：“银行业监管的激进程度降低将对大银行是个提振。特朗普认为银行在经济增长和放贷中扮演着重要角色，并呼吁废除（金融监管法）《多德-弗兰克法》(Dodd-Frank Act)。”

“We could expect defence and aerospace spending to boom during a Trump presidency as he looks to strengthen the US military. Increased cyber security and intelligence networks will also serve to benefit defence IT and communications.”

“我们可以预计防务和航空航天支出将在特朗普任总统期间出现大幅增长，因为他希望增强美国军力。增强网络安全和情报网络也将让防务IT和通信行业受益。”

Yet most fund managers are reluctant to begin putting hedges in place and fine-tuning portfolios before they have a clearer sense of Mr Trump’s final position on issues such as taxation, infrastructure and healthcare.

然而，大多数基金公司不愿在更清晰地了解到特朗普在税收、基础设施和医疗领域的最终立场之前，开始建立对冲和微调投资组合。

The businessman’s existing policies are widely viewed as inconsistent and contradictory, making it difficult to predict what his ultimate position will be, although some suspect his final stance will be softer than the politician currently implies.

人们普遍认为，特朗普当前的政策反复无常且相互矛盾，这让人们很难预测他最终的立场是什么，尽管一些人怀疑这位政客的最终立场将比他目前显示出的温和。

Martin Moeller, head of equities at UBP, the Swiss private bank, says: “The campaign has focused on the entertaining and ridiculous statements, [but], once elected, there will be less need for media attention and more focus on finding consensus with other politicians to get things done.